Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 60.101646 67.243759 75.423400 85.609852 98.138787 113.301018 133.455160
2024-12-29 52.035942 61.546982 73.501907 90.123647 113.522228 146.883363 201.625965
2025-01-05 45.727023 55.845112 69.285332 89.318687 120.235041 170.073713 267.971854
2025-01-12 40.883629 51.028935 65.031157 86.977139 123.299195 188.042307 338.024121
2025-01-19 36.614088 46.360075 60.159364 82.546525 121.497169 196.407414 395.563570
2025-01-26 35.677746 46.178622 61.649191 88.173644 138.343382 248.881977 638.544079
2025-02-02 34.953279 46.167376 63.315480 94.338557 158.270536 322.424653 1181.554097
2025-02-09 33.448056 44.800058 62.616077 96.117869 169.776530 384.379080 2104.239923
2025-02-16 31.697878 42.882002 60.767349 95.374123 175.334154 433.895123 3749.989984
2025-02-23 30.160624 41.164656 59.059389 94.594590 180.607185 489.342971 8301.371119
2025-03-02 28.515978 39.152574 56.647517 92.014762 180.476461 523.799011 20141.029288
2025-03-09 27.203596 37.587658 54.875658 90.505198 182.911164 575.725707 225444.675922
2025-03-16 25.415675 35.214756 51.616153 85.709256 175.589252 574.424951 NaN
2025-03-23 25.068649 35.196015 52.586801 90.279675 198.184849 804.592813 NaN
2025-03-30 24.054790 33.987920 51.258500 89.473729 203.619994 939.564353 NaN
2025-04-06 22.946120 32.551433 49.383850 87.125866 203.033589 1026.380996 NaN
2025-04-13 21.677837 30.779136 46.755789 82.683513 193.703362 1000.202747 NaN
2025-04-20 21.662535 31.149840 48.227694 88.325602 224.514876 1686.616073 NaN
2025-04-27 21.659037 31.536238 49.766602 94.507555 262.995173 3498.062855 NaN
2025-05-04 21.211963 31.105527 49.630440 96.291907 283.626271 6280.935336 NaN
2025-05-11 20.567184 30.283531 48.628445 95.546048 291.354503 9785.489147 NaN
2025-05-18 19.962817 29.505102 47.661085 94.764310 298.814541 17195.872964 NaN
2025-05-25 19.244962 28.488372 46.131737 92.177260 294.806598 22761.235312 NaN